In 78633, price cuts just outnumbered new listings.No other zip in the territory has crossed that line.
Here's the part most people don't know about 78633 right now: sellers are cutting prices faster than new homes are coming onto the market.
In the four weeks ending September 6, 78633 logged 64 price cuts. In that same window, only 38 new listings hit the market there, and just 14 homes sold. That's it. Cuts outrunning new supply. No other zip in this territory is doing that.
Compare that to 78628, which was last period's story. 78628 still shows plenty of cuts, 54 of them, but against 108 new listings that's a very different math problem. Sellers there are cutting, sure. Sellers in 78633 are cutting into a market that isn't refilling nearly as fast.
Some of what's driving that 78633 number is real money on the table. 105 Bonnie Rose came down 50,000, now asking 1,100,000, after 43 days on market. 149 Adlai Ave came down 50,000, now asking 388,250, after 150 days. 225 Bright Light Way came down 50,000, now asking 499,900, after 46 days. Ninety-two more cuts sit in the data behind these.
Now the counterpoint, and it's a clean one. 76537 recorded zero price cuts this period. Zero. Everywhere else in the territory, cuts ran from 33 to 64. 76537 still had 70 new listings and 13 sales in the same stretch, so it's not quiet, it's just not cutting. Whatever is pushing sellers to come down elsewhere in this territory has not touched that zip yet.
If you're selling in 78633 right now, this is the number to sit with before you list. A market where cuts already outnumber new supply is a market telling you something about where the price conversation is headed. Pricing it right the first time matters more here than it did even a few weeks ago.
If you're buying in 78633, this is your leverage. Sellers who already cut once are sellers who are listening. That doesn't mean lowball, it means the negotiation has more room in it than the listing price alone suggests.
If you're on either side in 76537, the ground is different. No cuts this period means sellers there haven't felt the same pressure, at least not yet.
What would change my mind on the 78633 read: if next period's cuts come back down toward the pack while new listings hold steady, this was a blip. If the gap between cuts and new supply widens again, it's a trend, not a moment.
A word on the sample. This is 253 new listings and 59 sales across the whole territory over these windows, and the sale price data behind most of those 59 is thin. Read the direction here, not a forecast. I'm watching what 78633 does next, and I'll have it for you.